T Owards a S Ystem D Ynamics M Odeling M E - Thod B Ased on Dematel

If System Dynamics (SD) models are constructed based solely on decision makers' mental models and understanding of the context subject to study, then the resulting systems must necessarily bear some degree of deficiency due to the subjective, limited, and internally inconsistent mental models which led to the conception of these systems. As such, a systematic method for constructing SD models could be essentially helpful in overcoming the biases dictated by the human mind's limited understanding and conceptualization of complex systems. This paper proposes a novel combined method to support SD model construction. The classical Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique is used to define causal relationships among variables of a system, and to construct the corresponding Impact Relation Maps (IRMs). The novelty of this paper stems from the use of the resulting total influence matrix to derive the system dynamic's Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and then define variable weights in the stock-flow chart equations. This new method allows to overcome the subjectivity bias of SD modeling while projecting DEMATEL in a more dynamic simulation environment, which could significantly improve the strategic choices made by analysts and policy makers.